Cutting Losses and unpredictability of stock market

This morning, I FINALLY cut my loss on NOL. Sold off my warrants at a 20%+ loss, wiping out all my SembMar + Coscocorp warrant sales on Monday, and still incurring $20 loss.

It was a good thing, as the market took a turn for the worse in the afternoon, had I not sold my stake, I would have incurred another 10% extra loss. big phew.

 I'll just take the $20 as a lesson learnt on not buying at the resistance and to watch the market makers' pricing on the warrants for at least a day or two, AND to buy In The Money(i.e. worth something) Warrants to be safe (since after all I'm still a novice)

Anyway today I bought a large stake in KeppelCorp's warrants issued by Deutsche Bank. I "amalgamated" my buys, which means I only pay 1 brokerage fee even thought I bought the warrants at 3 different times. I bought twice in the morning and once in the afternoon, averaging my cost price and achieving a decent price on it (considering I can't predict the market with much accuracy). My average cost price was $0.355/warrant, and last done price was $0.335, which means i lost $20 on each lot of warrant I bought, not including brokerage fees. Nevertheless, I've come to realise that I will ALWAYS lose on the first day of buying, simply because of the volatility of warrants, brokerage fees and the spread. Anyhow, I still believe KeppelCorp is on an uptrend, and my target period to sell the warrants are before CNY, when they still have 3/12 to expiry.

Petrobras is about to annouce the winners of it's rig tenders, and KeppelCorp, together with Jurong Shipyard(subsidiary of SembcorpMarine) are strong contenders. Hopefully, Keppel wins a contract which boosts it's stock price in the short run, and makes me some money in the process! Keppel today was a victim of the market, along with most of the other STI component stocks, in the huge sell off in the afternoon.

Looking at chart nexus, Keppel Corp's charts don't look too good; hence I will set a tighter stop loss for this warrant. KepCorp fell at a moderately HIGH volume of 7.83 Million today, and the MACD line diverged even more from the signal line today, plus, Blue line in Stochastic dropped even further from the red, and is inching it's way toward 50%, which is not a good sign.

KeppelCorp DB eCW110530
High: $0.375
Low: $0.325
Close: $0.335
Effective buy price: $0.355
Break even price: $0.361
Profit taking level: $0.40-$0.43
Stop Loss level: $0.310 (13.85% loss)