Saturday, May 21, 2011

Money changers in Raffles Place

My attempt at doing something artistic!

I recently went to the Arcade to change more Pounds Sterling, since the exchange rate was favorable.

The Arcade is FULL of money changers, presumably with better rates for different currencies.

For example, the money changer I queued up for had at least 20 people ahead of me, and most were changing Thai Baht, Ringgit, Chinese Renminbi.

The spreads on offer are really low and competitive. These money changers obviously make money through volume.

Take Pounds Sterling as an example.
Spot Rate was S$2.0040 to £1.00 at the time when I was changing.
UOB preferential staff rates were $1.9950 buy and $2.0090 sell (70 pip spread)
The money changer I went to, the rate was $1.9970 buy and $2.0140 sell (85 pip spread)

Essentially, they make about $10 for every £1,000 you change.

The spread for US dollar was even smaller!

The queue was REALLLY long! I queued up at 12.05pm and was attended to only at 12.25pm. People really love changing their money and going overseas don't they?

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

I am a new Capitaland shareholder.

As per my previous post here, I was contemplating buying Capitaland as a value buy. I put an order yesterday and today to buy capitaland at $3.13 and $3.15. Well, the $3.15 order was filled and I am a new capitaland shareholder.

My reasons for purchasing this security has been covered in the previous post.

On the technical side, Capitaland fell on extremely heavy volume today, apparently on fears that there will be policy tightening in China and Singapore (link here). Yet, it did manage to recover 3c from it's low to close at $3.17.

the counter-party for my shares was Merrill Lynch, honestly not too comfortable with that, it indicates BBs selling the share.

I've bought close to support at $3.12. This should be a good thing.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Bought CapitaMalls Asia today.

As per my previous post here, I've kept my eyes on three counters. The two commodity counters have since risen. I will still keep a lookout if they do reach my purchase price target again; if not, there will always be other trading opportunities.

I did, however, buy CMA today at $1.71. Like I explained in the previous post, CMA is at support at $1.70. Buying at support is a good idea.



Indicators show oversold condition for MACD and stochastics.
There was also muted selling today.

Immediate resistance is at $1.78 should CMA have a bullish inclination, and that is where I will sell CMA off. Should CMA see high volume breaking of that resistance, I will sell off at the next resistance at $1.84.

Breaking of $1.70 support will see downside toward $1.66. Should prices drop below $1.66 at high volume, I will cut loss.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Quick thoughts on Capitaland



Capitaland deals with...what else? Real Estate.

I'm bullish on real estate in Singapore especially, with the PAP government's constant influx of foreigners into Singapore. (I'm not going to debate the merits of this policy; this is an investment blog.)

What then is the direction of prices of real estate? only one way, I feel.

Might as well buy a company that will benefit from this policy.

Hence, I'm looking into adding Capitaland into my stable of long term holdings.

I'm not an accountant, I can't read financial statements that well. Yet, the fact that Temasek owns almost 40% of this company gives me confidence. (Same reason why I invested in ST Engineering.)

Follow what the BBs are investing in...and the biggest BB in Singapore is none other than Temasek...

Capitaland's NAV is currently at 327c and NTA is at 316c.

For property stock, I think the NTA is more appropriate than NAV.

Capitaland is currently trading at $3.26 with a CD of $0.06. Logically, it should drop to $3.20 upon XD, but the recent trend has been counters dropping more than their dividend amount.

Let's see where would be a good place to buy, using charts:

Capland has recovered from it's low of 311c on 17th March 2011, during the height of the Japan crisis.
This was also the 52 week low.

Since Capland will be going XD next week, technically prices should fall to 320c.
Yet given the bearish bent to the market these couple of weeks, prices may fall further past it's dividend amount (just like ST Engg, SembMarine, SCI, Wilmar inter alia). A good price to get it might be around the 311c to 318c area next week.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Trading Ideas: Noble, GAR, CMA

Noble:




Dropped on high volume today despite having a new SWF buying over 50,000,000 units of Noble Group.

Strong support seen at $1.98 to $2.00 region, which coincidentally coincides with the lower channel line.

This one looks good. I will enter should prices drop to that region.


Golden Agri:




Another counter close to a strong support.
Strong support eyed at 63c.
Seems to be consolidating around 65c level.
Will consider entering should prices weaken to 63c


CapitaMallsAsia:

this one is another close to support.



Indicators wise, all three counters paint a similar picture:
- declining MACD, the latter two in negative region whilst Noble in positive region
-Bullish divergence for force index
-oversold stochastics.

Of these three, Noble looks the most compelling should it reach it's target price (Longer term picture is of an uptrend as opposed to downtrend for CMA). I will revisit them again if they reach target price...

Monday, May 2, 2011

APRIL 2011 Portfolio Updates

The month of April 2011 was uneventful.

Quick updates:

ST Engineering: No annoucements last month except for a $320 million contract secured by ST Aerospace.




More revenue which is good...

Went XD last week, so I will be receiving my 11.55c per share dividend this month.

Was trading at $3.25 during CD and now at $3.15 during XD.


Poh Tiong Choon Logistics:

No annoucements, all resolutions passed at the AGM. Didn't manage to go for the AGM held at Jurong Country Club as I had work.
Insiders are still buying in, indicating to me they have confidence in the business.
2c Dividend, going XD soon.

Sabana REIT:

First payout is at 3cents, in line with projections. Note that 3c is from listing date end Nov to 31/3/2011, making it a payout for FOUR months, which is why it is higher.


First REIT:
Went XD last week, with a payout of 1.58c in line with projections.

No Annoucements made.


All in all, with the dividends received and the recent market recovery, my portfolio has returned to a profit.

May looks to be a good month with payouts coming from all 4 of my counters.

My investments, ranked by market price, are:
1.) ST Engg
2.) First REIT
3.) PohTC
4.) Sabana