Trading Vs. Investing, and KIV Counters/Positions for next week

I have 2 very distinct animals inside me, one of which is the short term trader, and the other, the long term investor. I'm sure many of us do dabble in these 2, and most of the blog community here tends towards the investing side. No doubt, earning and losing money in days, let alone hours, is very exciting and something that I've covered in previous posts. Nonetheless, it's extremely high risk.

For example, I expected a market correction either yesterday or today, and I bet a small short contract on the SiMSCI yesterday. Needless to say, the Singapore market went up strongly and I ended up losing about the price of a G2000 shirt. Today, I expected the market to correct and I did put a SiMSCI Short again, earning back 1 bowl of sliced fish beehoon, can add fish and beehoon.

I'll state outright that I've lost more than I've earned thru my short term trading of warrants and CFD's, but the amount, in the grand scheme of things, isn't that much, about the price of a pair of cheapo jeans you can buy in the mall. However, losing money obviously hurts.

Luckily for me, I've been disciplined (so far) that I never put a significant sum of money on the line.

Investing, on the other hand, takes much more deliberation. You have to decide whether this business is worthy of your money. I took a very very very very long time deliberating whether or not to invest in Dapai and First REIT (especially Dapai), and glad to say, it's paid off somewhat with Dapai showing about 20% gain from purchase price, and First REIT about 7%.

I still think Dapai is a good company, BUT, obviously this is contingent on the management's integrity. All my Fundamental Analysis can go to hell if the books are cooked. (My FA on Dapai is here)

So in conclusion to my rant, is that I try to make most of my money, and have most of my money, in long term investments, whilst I try to make some kopi money from speculation. (currently losing a few starbucks frappucinos)


From the 2nd part of the blog title, it's obvious what I'm gearing at, the short term speculation of counters next week. Just posting these up as an opinion and to test my TA. Probably will use IG markets demo account to go with my predictions.

I'm looking at a few counters to go long (duration: Few days) next week, namely,
1.) Keppel Corp
2.) Wilmar

Also looking for opportunity to go short on SiMSCI.

For Keppel Corp, I will wait for a pullback before entering. Indicators showing that Keppel is WAY overbought, with RSI at 87% level and MFI at 80% level. However, there is no divergence (higher high and higher low) between RSI/MFI and Stock price, which indicates the trend is still intact. Moreover, Stochastics indicate overbought too, but bullish. So is MACD. However Keppel Corp is approaching 52-week highs.

So I'm predicting for next week that Keppel Corp will rise, but face strong resistance. I likely will not enter unless there's a huge correction.

Wilmar:

From the chart, you can see the negative divergences of RSI and MFI, these 2 indicators forming higher high and higher low (slightly) whilst Wilmar was downtrending, possibly indicating a turnaround. Also both hovering around mildly oversold conditions.
Looking at momentum, Stochastics just showed a bullish crossover, and so did MACD, which possibly also indicates a turnaround.

However, there was higher selling pressure on the 2 days that Wilmar dropped off a cliff, as compared to the moderate buying pressure the last 3 days (when Wilmar rallied). Not sure about that.

Fibonacci retracements show that Wilmar's next resistance is $5.79.

In conclusion: Wilmar's indicators look good for a turnaround, but next (minor) resistance is fast approaching.

My prediction: Wilmar will go up next week, but have to watch whether it can clear the $5.79 level. As short term traders go, Buy at support and sell at resistance.

2 scenarios which i will buy wilmar:
1.) Drop back to Tuesday's low or roughly about $5.50-$5.60
2.) Clear $5.78 at reasonable volume.


SiMSCI:

SiMSCI corresponds 99% to STI (difference is that SiMSCI has CoscoCorp whilst STI doesn't) so I'll be talking in terms of STI.

STI's currently at it's minor resistance of 3272 with indicators showing bullish yet overbought conditions. Stochastic is about to perform a bearish crossover, however, MACD is still bullish. RSI and MFI show no divergence, but at extremely overbought levels.
2 scenarios I can see panning out:
1.) STI surges thru it's minor resistance at 3272 next week to meet it's major resistance at 3310.
What I'll do in this scenario: Long STI on Monday, then SHORT STI when it touches 3310!
2.) Capricorn effect dissolves and STI can't, or will have major difficulty, passing thru the 3727 resistance.
What I'll do in this scenario: Review the indicators when it happens. either short or go long or sit back and watch the show.

I think scenario 1 is likely to happen, which is good as there's clearer technical signs for me to make some Frappuccino money.

Lastly, a disclaimer to this post: Obviously, I am super new to the stock market, so do not take me seriously. Please follow someone else more senior with your money.
I'm not even sure whether I just spent 30 mins typing bulls**t.
More senior readers please correct me if I'm wrong before Monday morning. :)
I will be playing out the scenarios I've described on a demo account with IG markets and with very little real money on City Index.